The UK’s electricity system price spiked to £2,242/MWh last night (4 March 2020) following lower than expected wind generation during the evening peak.
Prices jumped to the £2,242/MWh mark during settlement period (SP) 37 (6-6:30pm), and remained high at £1,708/MWh during SP 38 (6:30-7pm).
The spike in system price is likely to have occurred due to wind generation being over forecast, according to Limejump’s head of trading and analytics, Rob Sherwood.
Wind was generating ~2GW at the time, 2GW less than had been forecast and 4.4GW less than it had been generating the day prior (3 March 2020).
Due to this scarcity in supply, National Grid called on its short term operating reserve (STOR), leading to system prices being calculated using the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and the Reserve Scarcity Price, currently set at £6,000/MWh.