Winter outlook: EU markets

The success of French nuclear capacity coming back online will be crucial to Europe’s power markets.

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Proposals for Changes for Winter 2022 to the tools National Grid ESO uses to balance the system

Grid has announced two new services for Winter this year. The “Winter Demand Flexibility Service” is a first outing for domestic DSR and is an exciting development.

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Sweden overtakes France as Europe’s biggest net power exporter

Sweden overtook France as the biggest net exporter of power in Europe during the first half of this year.

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Thoughts on Winter 2022/23

The GB market does not have sufficient capacity this winter to avoid some significant high-price events in the market.

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Nuclear – An upcoming Renaissance, or a Radioactive Decay

The UK government’s plan for net-zero by 2050 also relies on nuclear power as a key component, with one of the future energy scenarios from National Grid ESO estimating over 17GW of nuclear by 2050, more than double the ~8GW today

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T-4 Capacity Market Auction Cleared An All Time High Price

This year’s T-4 Capacity Market Auction for delivery year 2024-25 has cleared at an all-time high price of £30.59/kW/year following the previous record in the T-1 auction of £75/kW

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Record clearing price in Capacity Market auction

A record high clearing price of £75/kW/yr in the Capacity Market auction for 2022/23 brought 1.4GW of new build capacity into the market and secured ongoing operation of 3.1GW existing units

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France still biggest exporter, despite heavy imports in December

France maintained its position as the biggest net exporter of power in Europe in the second half of 2021, despite an extreme reliance on imports at the beginning of winter.

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Spanish Day-Ahead Price Cap and Floor removed just in time

Like most of the countries in the continent, Spain is experiencing high carbon prices, high gas prices, low gas reserves, low water reserves and periods with low renewable generation.

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Stability Pathfinders: Tendering opportunities for services to enable a zero-carbon system

As the country moves towards greater levels of renewable generation, there will be less and less traditional synchronous generation on the system.

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Carbon and gas prices drive ancillary services up in the Netherlands

Availability prices for FCR, aFRR and mFRR have increased dramatically since the fourth quarter in 2020. This has caused a lot of interest in flexible generation and storage. Are these prices temporary or the start of a sustained trend?

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France overtakes Norway to become largest net power exporter

France overtook Norway to regain its position as the biggest net exporter of power in Europe in the first half of 2021. France’s total net exports amounted to 21TWh, with most of the power flowing to Great Britain (8.6TWh) and Italy (7.2TWh).

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Fundamental market changes in Spain increase risks and opportunities for energy traders

Recent changes in wholesale markets (day-ahead and intraday sessions) coupled with an increase in renewables and interconnector capacity are expected to increase revenue opportunities – and risks – for energy traders.

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Costs for interconnector capacity to Britain are the most expensive in Europe

Looking at the monthly auctions for May 2021, which are hosted via JAO’s trading platform, our latest research shows that the price for capacity on the interconnector to export energy from Belgium to Great Britain was the most expensive in Europe at 19.42€/MW/H.

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Belgian FCR prices hit new record

Capacity prices for FCR reached record levels of over € 1.000 per MW per hour due to scarce flexibility. Weekends in Belgium will remain very tricky, at least until the pumped storage plant at Coo will return to service, with nuclear switching off, it will be interesting to see what happens the following weekends.

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New day-ahead electricity market service drives higher prices

STOR was re-introduced on April 1 and unlike its previous incarnation, which was tendered for season-long durations, it is based on daily auctions – giving providers the flexibility to optimise on a daily basis between STOR and other market segments.

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New post-Brexit market arrangements trigger hike in power prices

Prices in the GB electricity market soared at the beginning of this month. The maximum day-ahead price in the market in the first week of March was £683 – more than three times the maximum day-ahead price of £191.55 seen in any day in March in the previous six years.

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Brexit cuts interconnector use and sends power prices rocketing

Britain’s exit from the EU has resulted in reduced trading on the electricity interconnectors between GB & Ireland and increased the frequency of extreme prices although the withdrawal agreement ensured that the SEM would remain intact.

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Negative prices sweep across Europe

Negative power prices have swept across Europe in the first nine months of 2020, with excess power in the market resulting in consumers being paid rather than charged to use electricity. European countries on average saw negative day ahead prices almost 1% of the time.

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